CBA Analyses no. 15

The most recent reductions in monetary regulatory costs based on elimination of reserve margin requirements will compensate for the growth of banking cost of funds in the period of escalation of global crisis after September 2008. However, all former pressures on increase of interest rates are still active. Start of loosening of monetary regulation from October and November will not permanently eliminate such pressures, unless it is followed by fiscal restriction and monetary relaxation period. Risks escalating in crisis are otherwise small or not visible at all. When usual credit, market and operational risks are added that are also intensified in the crisis it is obvious that in the following months interest rates will be under significant influence of hardly foreseeable and interdependent risk premiums.

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