CBA Analyses no. 16

Incomplete institutional reforms and questionable deficit financing in difficult times make impossible the positive effects of government spending on the growth and employment rate. Long-year fiscal deficit brings the issue of fiscal sustainability, which does not favour the creditor’s trust. Also, in countries with institutional weaknesses fiscal expansion may have pro-recession effects through squeeze-out effect: interest rate growth due to increased government funding requirements may affect the reduction of overall investments and consumption. It is therefore no wonder that an empirical analysis does not show any positive effect of government spending on GDP. We are not in the opportunity to imitate the fiscal methods of the leading developed countries, whose fiscal policy is perceived as sustainable, and there is always demand for their bonds. Therefore the Economic Council recommendation from December for a balanced budget or a budget in surplus was reasonable.

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