CBA Analysis no. 25-26

Three years after the start of the global crisis, and two years after its strong spillover into Europe and Croatia, it is evident that credit in Croatia during this crisis oscillated less than in developed countries and the majority of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. This result is interesting, as credit demand in Croatia did not drop less than in other countries. For that reason, this analysis has shown that the credit cycle in Croatia during the crisis was under the strong influence of the ability of domestic banks to buffer the impact of increased costs of funds, without increasing the net interest spread. Under such conditions, bank profits were reduced, but not to the extent that would disable their ability to obtain significant new credits.

A more pronounced credit crunch was avoided due to the relatively high level of capitalisation in banks prior to the crisis, and to the retention of a high level of capital during the crisis. Unlike the situation in Croatia, the leading banks in the US, EU and several of the countries of the New Europe (i.e. Baltic States) faced increased risks and a much greater drop in profit. This caused a stronger correlation of the business and credit cycles in those countries than was evidenced in Croatia. The crisis proved that the banking system in Croatia and in several other countries of Central and Eastern Europe have had a stabilizing character, and not a crisis accelerating character, as was thought in the initial stages of the crisis.

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