CBA Analysis no. 35

Bank regulatory costs did not change much in 2011. The rate of the minimum required foreign currency claims was cut from 20% to 17% in March, while the reserve requirement rate was raised from 13% to 14% in October. As these changes were not significant, it follows that regulation was not an important determinant of the interest margin and profitability of banks in 2011. Nevertheless, the upward trend in bank profitability that had begun in mid-2010 came to a halt in the third quarter of 2011. Profitability indicators increased between mid-2010 to mid-2011 owing to a reduction in bank financing costs. However, the standard indicators – return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) began to stagnate in the third quarter of 2011, after growing steadily for four quarters – from the third quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2011. Only more detailed profitability indicators for the third quarter, which have not yet been published, will show whether the end of ROE and ROA growth was caused by more expensive funding sources, higher costs of provisions for identified losses, or losses arising from securities. In any case, this could signal a reversal of the trend in profitability, particularly in the light of the latest measures by parent bank regulators, which intend to implement Basel III early and establish a stronger link between credit growth and growth in domestic funding sources.

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