CBA Analysis no. 45

Banking has changed. It will never be the same. A glance at the regulatory changes that have taken place in the span of just a few years show that changes to come are uncertain. In the European context, there are complex interactions between the supranational, pan-European and national regulations and supervisory practices. This is all occurring in conditions of fiscal difficulties and a lack of economic growth, which only further hinders the situation.

The complexity is so great that at this moment, there is likely no one able to foresee the ultimate impacts of the interactions of all these regulations, and guarantee the certainty of their application. An uncertain and vague future always represents an unfavourable operating environment. As such, we can suspect that the lack of vibrancy in the credit market throughout Europe is not merely the consequence of development difficulties. A part of this could be a direct consequence of the uncertainty created by the unclear interaction of different regulatory changes.

Under such conditions, what is a small country on the European periphery to do? A country whose banks not only did not cause problems and did not search for salvation from taxpayer funds, but which during the greatest period of crisis succeeded in securing overall financial and fiscal stability of the state? The message can likely be reduced to a single word: simplification. Though this word may seem like utopia in today's environment, the maximum we can strive for are the simplest possible solutions, diminishing the already high regulatory costs, and applying simpler and proven international standards. This is likely the only principle that, at this time, could bring any form of recovery to the economy. However, one must admit that the complexity and ambiguity are so great that it is difficult to be optimistic that the mere application of this principle will be able to significantly stimulate economic growth.

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