CBA Analysis no. 54

The problem of Swiss franc-indexed loans has so far been viewed by actors as a zero
sum game – redistribution between creditors and debtors. This view failed to cover
complex economic and financial relations associated with the problem. For example,
losses at the banks' expense imply that banks would pay less income tax to the
budget. On the other hand, reduction of the repayment burden implies higher
private consumption and avoidance of a drop in VAT and other public revenues. This
leads to the question of what is the relationship between total losses and gains for
both the budget and the economy as a whole.

While statistical gains and losses for individual actors can be identified relatively
easily, the dynamic relationship between gains and losses for the budget and the
economy as a whole cannot yet be calculated. The form and net amount of total
effects depends on a number of economic relations that no one has yet attempted to
estimate. Although this analysis does not provide such an estimate, it points to a
conceptual structure of the model and methodological paths that could lead to this
estimate in the future. It is not too late for such an estimate as the issue of the final
calculation of costs for the solution to the Swiss franc problem will remain open for a
long time.

CBA Analysis 54 - CHF effects

LinkedIn icon