CBA Analyses no. 19

Net profit of Croatian banks for the first six months of 2009 is by 13.6% lower than in the first half 2008. These are the announced and expected consequences of the crisis. However, profitability fall causes the further fall of return on equity (ROE) that could go under 8% by the end of year. Profitability fall also causes the fall of return on assets (ROA) that could get close to 1% by the end of year. However, the fall of profits will not affect the stability of Croatian banks. Banks’ profit in Croatia is not the principal trigger of the crisis as Croatian banks have more than satisfactory capitalisation level. However, more caution is required in estimate regarding the mid-term effects. Mid-term credit cycle recovery will depend on the expected ROE. That ratio will determine the readiness of owners to keep or add capital into subsidiary banks in specific countries. ROE level and trend in Croatia do not guarantee a high degree of such interest. At this point it is impossible to estimate whether that will be an issue and what to what extent.

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